Newsletter


11.12.2013 Almonds December 2013

Ladies and Gentlemen

with this market report we would like to use the chance to connect this with our best wishes for a peaceful Holiday period and a very Happy New Year!

We would like to thank all our customers, suppliers and friends for the real good cooperation and services as well as the trust you all brought to us.

The Almond Position Report for November, published by the Almond Board of California, corresponds with most expectations.


Shipments, since August 1st, increased by 8,68% domestic and 6,83% in all export markets. Average increase plus 7,36%.

Receipts sum up by November 30, 2013 at 1.737 mill. lbs vs 1.577 mill. lbs the previous years November.

Past week the Almond Conference opened it's doors and more than 2.500 farmers, exporters, handlers and service companies met.

The Almond Board had prepared an extensive package of presentations. In addition an exhibition took place.

The general mood was positive. Shipping figures show good demand for almonds.
Currently nobody did deny the last estimation for the almond crop 2013 at 1.850 lbs. Most participants would agree to a final crop size of more or less 1,9 Billion lbs.

The Almond Kernel sizes are remarkably smaller. At the early stage of the harvest many extremely small kernels where found in Non Pareil variety, mainly from areas known for very dry conditions.

At the later stage the picture had slightly improved. Non Pareils and also California varieties tended to average around 34 count. Larger fruit was found in Carmel or Carmel type's but with the tendecy for a higher amount of doubles. Butte/Padre, Mission type tended to be smaller. Hence inquiries for 27/30 or 30/32 in most cases did not receive any positive reply. Presold volumes created problems for many handlers and the retrieval was far drawn out as they had to go through a lot of their inventories.

As many where hoping for a larger volume of inshell business from India or China, product was held back. With the awareness that those markets moved on at a slower pace and under the pressure of their clients more nuts went for cracking. This resulted into later shipments than most had anticipated knowing about a relatively early and easy harvest and good quality. The majority of the new crop shipments did not leave California before the second half of October or even early November due to truckers demonstrating at the terminals for fester service and vessels overbooked so that loads where rolled for shipment. All of this resulted in a shortage for industries who where in bad needs for their Christmas production. Product had to be sourced on the spot market where traders had little to nil goods due to conservative planning. Prices firmed significantly. However this backup creates now product arriving on the market which has to be placed. By week 51 this becomes more or less impossible as industry users will shut down, goods have to be stored, financed and money is being tight up. The second hand is trying to discount those lots with about 2-3 cents /lb below California and may even more.

An extremely important argument for growers is the water situation this year. The amount of precipitation during 2013 was just too small. The resources have been used and water allocations significantly reduced.
Farmers had to deepen and add wells and a lot of ground water was used. Some of this is not of good quality and would damage trees over the long run. The California Government is also considering regulations for ground water which has not been the case so far. There are no real good indications for any real change at this point. Grower will prefer to wait to justify the coming bloom 2014. Without any change of the weather patterns this behavior will not change.

The current supply situation, crop size, shipments and already committed volumes show no difference to last year. Uncommitted Inventory 2013=771 mill. lbs 2014= 770 mill. lbs. Accept the receipts are over 140 mill. lbs higher than last years November. It is breakable how easy California seems to be in the position to replace the decreases in China and India by other markets. Turkey, Germany, Spain and USA are just some examples.

Buyers should be ready for smaller sizes. They should also give up their patience and consider to cover at least their needs for the 1st half of 2014. Any offers should really be considered and probably taken.

In the meantime we hope you have a re creative time.

A healthy and successful 2014!

PALM Nuts & More Nuss & Trockenfrucht GmbH & Co. KG
California Direct (Germany) GmbH

You can find the position report here:
http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=288
and a history of shipments and crops here:
http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=289


11.10.2013 California Almonds September 2013 Position Report

Ladies and Gentlemen

California Almonds Sept. 11, 2013

The latest September Positon Report indicates 790.363,768 mill lbs crop receipts ( 660.947,585 by 30.9.2012) or plus 19,58%

Export shipments
Sept. 2013 = 127.480,377 vs 2012 = 118.559,435 mill lbs
Domestic
Sept. 2013 = 49.631,633 vs 2012 = 37.289,458 mill lbs.

Total
Sept. 2013 = 177.112,010 vs 2012 = 155.848,893 mill. lbs

Plus 10% since August 1st., 2013

China/Hong Kong plus 34%
Asien plus 11%
Europe plus 10%
Eastern Europe plus 7%
Middle East plus 10%
India -22%

India had probably bought a lot of their needs from Australia and was a late buyer for California. China came too late for Australia and has no experience with than origin.

Harvest
Early crop, fast and without delays.
Generelly very small kernel sizes, Tendency 34-36.
Non Pareil quantity slightly better than the estimate.
Carmel & California signifficantly below expectations.
Polinators (Mission/Butte/Padre but also Carmel etc.) most extremely small kernels and smaller in volume compared to last year.
Overall expectation of the final crop size just about the estmate or only slightly better as the last estimate at 1.850-mill. lbs.

Premiums for any size larger than 30/32 much more signifficant than usual.
Since yesterday prices have firmed by at least 3%. Std5% moved from USD 3,06/lb fas / Euro 5,50 to 3,15/lb fas = Euro 5,65-5,70 Nov./Dec. delivery. Cal ssr 30/32 USD 3,35/lb fas = Euro 6,--/kg ddp.

Strong demand in particular from Europe for prompt shipment, spot goods and basically empty pipelines. California Amlond packers basically booked for October but also November. October shipment expected to be as strong as the past two month.
Most packers are withdrawn as they are unable to find gower support.

Spanish Almond crop much shorter then usual. Estimations are in the range of 30-35.000tons. Inland damend very strong and heavely short Exporters must pay any price to fullfill obligations. Prices in general much higher than California products but still interesting for the mediterenian buyers due to known varieties and the option to find smaller quantities and short term supply.Unselected Valencias quotiting at about Euro 6,45/kg ddp.

Further Priceincrease is expected. Pure covering by the european markets in particular January forward, good demand for prompt and spot goods indicate positive consumer demand.

With best regards
Jens Borchert

Download Link: 2013.09PosRpt.pdf


12.07.2013 Almond Position Report June 2013

Ladies and Gentlemen,
please find our comment about the latest Almond Position report.
To read the report click on the below link.

The Position Report can be found here:
http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=267

With best regards
Jens Borchert

Download Link: NMNewsletter12072013en.pdf


10.05.2013 April 2013 Position Report Almonds

EUR/USD 1,30..

April Almond shipments from California where slightly weaker versus April 2012. April 2013 = 129.517 mill. lbs vs 148.522 mill. lbs. Total shipments, since July 2013 add up to 1.446,5 mill. lbs vs 1.492,2 mill lbs = April 2012 or Minus 3,06%. The US market is still ahead, where Exports are behind. In particular China seems to be going on a slower scale. Within Europe, Germany has increased while Spain seems to be suffering by the Financial Crisis.

Looking at the Almond Duty Quota, it currently seems apparent that the 90.000tons quota will be eliminated by end of May 2013.
Balance May 8, 2013 = 13.843,45 vs May7, 2012 = 14.062,66tons. Early on it seemed that this year will allow a few days longer to be extinguished as at some point declared volumes where almost as much as 4.000tons behind last years numbers. Today basically the same balance had been reached. So please remember to declare on time for the lower duty before it will be too late.

The "Academics" are still arguing if the flagging shipments could have an impact on the prices. Today it seems that prices are holding current levels. This due to the fact, that the origin does not show weakness as lower bids had been refused. Sure, the uncomited inventories are still at about 360 mill.lbs and more or less that the same as during April 2012 but suitable stocks for Std5% almonds or even Cal ssr 27/30 calibers are very scare. Larger sizes in Carmel or Non Pareils may be the main stocks being carried at this point but request a premium.

Today we would estimate prices for std5% as follows: May-June-July abt. USD 2,75-2,80/lb fas and new crop beginning with October abt. USD 2,40/lb fas. The Position Report can be downloaded wit the below link. and or statistic with historical almond shipment datas can be found here: http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=256

Please note the following important dates:

PLMA, Amsterdam 28.-29.5.2013
Come and visit us!
Europa Complex Stand 4237

Anuga: 5.-9.10. 2013 Cologne

Food Ingredients Europe:
We exhibit!
19. - 21.11. 2013 Frankfurt
Hall 9.1, Stand 91H38 Green Farms/California Direct Macadamias


Download Link: 2013.04PosRpt.pdf


03.05.2013 Subjective Almond Estimation 2013

Dear Sirs,
attached please find our comments concerning the 2013 subjective almond crop estimation, released May 2, 2013.
The estimation can be found here:
http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=207

Download Link: NMNewsletter03052013en.pdf


26.04.2013 Almonds NASS Acreage Report 2013

Ladies and Gentlemen,
last Thursday, April 25, 2013 the Almond Acreage Report was published by the NASS Service.
For 2013 are 810.000 acres reported as bearing, meaning in production. 2012 the bearing acres where estimated at 790.000 and 80.000 non bearing. The increase represents a good average compared to the previous years.
The subjective Almond crop forecast is expected to be released May 2nd, 2013.
With best regards
PALM Nuts & More
Nuss & Trockenfrucht GmbH


Download Link: 201305almac.pdf


10.04.2013 Almond Position Report March 2013

Ladies & Gentlemen,

The March 2013 Position Report shows today 140,642 mill lbs total shipment for the month. This is composed out of
52,2 Domestic and 88,4 Export. March 2012 was the record breaking Month ever and reached 172,5 mill lbs las year. Total shipments from August 1 to March 31st are now at 1.317 mill. lbs vs 1.344 in 2012. Receipts accumulate to 1.879 bill lbs vs 2.013 bill lbs in March 2012. That indicates that the estimate of 2.100 bill. lbs is out of reach. Shipments in total for now are just about 2% behind.
The market is expecting strong demand for 2nd and 3rd quarter of this year. Manymarkets have to cover their demand from crop year 2012. That part of the reason for a sigifficant difference in price for basically all items of near to USD 0,50/lb between crop 2012 and 2013 material.
With the strengthen of the Euro vs USD more buying interest appeared after almond prices had dropped sharply from record highs.
This has stabilized prices from decreasing and caused a slight firming.
March shipments where not record breaking but receipts are behind expectations, too. Demand and an unpredictable start of the harvest 2013 will direct demand to crop 2012 inventories.
Conditions in California since bloom had been good. Past weekend some storms have caused wind damage and nut drop. Reports are irritating. Certainly not all fruits will develope to a nut and as usual trees shed fruit. The wind may have caused an earlier drop. But we believe the the bloom was not "super perfect". Particularely the Non Pareils, still representing 45% of the total crop seem a little weak.
The slight glitch in March shipments may create some pressure on the other hand demand is strong and buying interest may continue in a market with lower inventorie of certain products and compensate the lower shipments.We forsee demand, especially while the Euro has strenghtend and price seem to be attractive.
With best regards
Jens Borchert

Position Report 03/2013
http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=235
and the Historie:
http://www.palm-nutsandmore.de/deliver.php?id=236
or downlod the PDF right here.




Download Link: NMNewsletter11042013en.pdf