17.12.2014 Almonds Position Report November 2014

Ladies and Gentlemen,
please find attached our current market report for almonds.

click here:
Market Report

Position Report November 2014

Almond Shipping and Crop History

With best regards
PALM Nuts & More
Nuss & Trockenfrucht GmbH & Co. KG

09.05.2014 Almond Position Report April 2014

Ladies and Gentlemen,

the April Positon Report was just released by the Almond Board of California.
Shipments are again above the same month the previous year. Receipts are now reported at 2,006,297,843 lbs.
Total shipments from August-April plus 4,28%.
Please find more details on the current Position Report as per attachment or with the below mentioned Download links.

With best regards for a nice weekend,
we remain,

Download Link: 2014.04PR.pdf

02.05.2014 California Almonds Subjective Crop Forcast 2014

Ladies and Gentlemen,
past May 1st the objective measurement Report was announced by NASS.
The phone survey resulted in 1,95 bill. lb on estimated 860.000 „bearing acres“.
Under the impression of an excellent bloom period and a favorable but dry winter with extended chilling hours most may have expected a crop estimate at or above 2,0 bill. lbs. One Exporter who had announces his own private report set his landmark at 1,999 bill. lbs. Clouded by the very serious water situation mentioned by many participants and mentioned in the media for some it may have been over applied and used as a political tool. Some do seem to mention the problem only in a subordinate clause. However the fact is that this years precipitation is by far not enough and California is using the limited resources.

Another interesting point is the recently published Acreage Report from the CDFA from April 25, 2014. Not being notice by many, including us, Bearing Acres figures since 2008 have been adjusted by 30.000 acre for each year. The report does not mention any reason. It was known since quite a while, that estimated increases in bearing acreage have been questioned being too low. That might be the reason for this correction. On the flip side of the coin, yields per acre have to be corrected to lower figures.

You can find the Acreage Report, Shipping History and the subjective 2014 Estimate on our website under Service and than Download.

The current view on the situation should be seen as a neutral with regards to pricing.

The origin, so far has been hesitant to lower bids. Packers do not have the inventory and/or they have not much grower support. While Farmers are faced daily with the water situation there is very limited willingness to accept prices substantially below current crop price levels. Some packers might be in the situation to allow sales within their own responsibility. So far very limited volume of new crop has been booked.

June 30, 2014 the objective crop estimate for California Almonds is expected. Any delay is unlikely. The fruits develop well and have already firmed so that a timely Harvest seems under way.

We would like to remind to the fact that significant volumes of new crop shipments will not be likely before second half of September/Beginning of October. Furthermore we are hearing reports about a possible threat of strikes on the West-coast during June. It is now 10 years ago since the last negotiations resulted into extended strikes and negotiations, again seem difficult.

With best regards
PALM Nuts & More
Nuss & Trockenfrucht GmbH & Co. KG

Subjective Almond Report 2014

Acreage Report

Shipping History

11.03.2014 California Almonds February 2014 Position Report

Ladies and Gentlemen,

today the Almond Board of California has announced the Position Report for the Month of February 2014.
The receipts as of February 28, 2014 are at 1.990,3 m. lbs = ca. 903.000tons.
Total shipments are at 1.219 mill. lbs versus 1.176 mill. lbs during August to February 2013. This is a plus of 3,66%. Februar 2014 on it's own was slightly weaker compared to February 2013. However the California Almond Industry has shown a great performance. The good shipments have well compensated the increased receipts.
Bloom 2014 in California is nearly over. Conditions have been very good, accept the lack of precipipations during winter. During the last couple of days at the end of the bloom, some rain showers, in particular in the northern and central part of the California Valley passed through the area. Those showers can not at all compensate the low snowpack of the past winter. The current warm temperatures cause an earlier melting of the limited snowpack in the Sierras. Current price levels for California Almonds have lost some ground under the pressure of the positive bloom conditions. Current crop prices seem to hold better than new crop. Inventories mainly consist of higher grades and sellers aks for premiums. New crop seems to be dicounted by the 2nd hand traders only as the Origin is looking sceptically at the crop 2014.
A closer look should be taken at the European Almond duty Quota. The original 90.000tons starting to become available January 1st of the year have melted down to 36.789 tons by March 10, 2014. March 11, 2013 the remaining balance was 48.552 tons. According to that the quota may just last until End of April/Early days of May 2014 versus early June in 2013. Almond consumption still seems to be running on a very high level. We do not want to forget to remind everybody about a certain risk of low temperature impact until early April. The further developement of the fruits shall also be signifficantly under the impact of the growing period during summer depending a lot on the weather and temperatures. Cost's for water increase dramatically. And as per last years experience remarkable shipments of new crop material from California may not start befor October (arriving in Europe end of November).
Bloom in Spain is on it's way in all areas now. Conditions seem favorable at this point. Australia is already harvesting and about 70.000 metric tons are expected. Chile had a frost during bloom and damage was reported. Sellers do not offer at this point as they want to see the nuts coming in before selling. The South American Markets are paying very good premiums and are a major market now for Chilean almonds.

With best regards

The Position Report can be found on our website:
or as attachement.

The Shipping History:

and the Almond quota for the EU:

mehr unter:

Download Link: 2014.02PR.pdf

10.01.2014 Almonds Position Report December 2013

Ladies and Gentlemen,

a healthy and successful New Year!

The December Position Report numbers, in particular the receipts, kind of positively surprising.
Those are running ahead of last year with 1.935 mill. lbs versus 1.741 in December 2012.
Already during the Almond Board Conference most opinions tended towards over a 1,9 potential, based on internal figures while packers compared receipts of certain orchards.
This positive factor does not seem to change the entire Situation at all as shipments run on a similar scale with good increase.

In addition this crop was much earlier and a questions remains to be answered: How many „unreported“ almonds are still to be reported until, let's say March 2014? Probably less than last year. Many packers confirmed during December that their Huller & Sheller operations will be shut down by the end of December.
Considering the below mentioned numbers as an estimation with a positive view on the final crop size at 1.995 mill. lbs the balance or better carry out at the end does not appear much different at all with a calculated carry over of just below 300 mill. lbs.

Carry in aus 2012 317 mill. lbs
Crop 2013 1.995mill. lbs (currently 1.935 vs objective estimate 1.850)
Loss 3% 60mill.lbs

Available from 2013 2.252 mill. lbs
Shipments 1.959 mill lbs (2012 shipments 1.866,45 plus 5%)

Carry out 293 mill. lbs

Driving markets where Europe and the USA. China in particular imported significantly less almonds. India seems to show more interest as the previously purchased stocks of Australian Almonds may be consumed.

Rain will be the battle winning factor this year. There are some forecast's for precipitation for the end of January or early February. But they might only last for one week or so. This may have a positive impact on the growers behavior but in practice not be enough to compensate the water shortage at all. In the past buyers better did not ask growers for offers while it rained. This season it might be opposite.
During the first full working week of this year we had seen a lot of inquiries and a significant amount did trade, also. Even after the release of the December Position report more inquiries for various products came to the market, indicating that buyers where taking another chance as they where not able to book as much as they wanted. Prices have not decreased since at all.

Currently we do not foresee any positive change in the current price levels for buyers. Many packers are still unable to find grower support. The water issue will certainly impact the market at the most. Certain sizes are already sold out or have remarkable premiums.

With best regards
Jens Borchert

Please visit our website for more informations.

Download Link: 2013.12.pdf